In a stunning turn of events, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime has fallen after over a decade of civil war, marking the end of one of the most brutal chapters in the Middle East's modern history. Rebel forces, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), rapidly advanced across key territories, capturing Damascus on December 8, 2024, with minimal resistance. Assad reportedly fled to Russia, where he has been granted asylum, leaving behind a fractured nation now at the centre of intense geopolitical maneuvering.
The offensive against Assad’s forces began on November 27, 2024, as HTS and allied rebel groups launched a coordinated campaign targeting regime-held cities in northwestern Syria. The speed of their advance was unprecedented, with Aleppo, Hama, and Homs falling in quick succession. Eyewitness accounts described chaotic scenes of Syrian soldiers abandoning their posts and fleeing, leaving civilians to face the uncertainty of rebel rule. “The army just ran away,” recounted one Aleppo resident, reflecting the disintegration of a military apparatus that had once been the backbone of Assad’s power.
A Fractured Landscape
The collapse of Assad’s regime has laid bare the complexities of Syria's conflict. Over the years, the war evolved from a domestic uprising into a multi-layered proxy conflict involving numerous foreign powers and non-state actors, all vying for influence. Assad’s rule was sustained through the support of key allies, particularly Russia and Iran, whose involvement in Syria has reshaped the country's political and military landscape.
Russian Influence
Russia entered the conflict decisively in 2015, providing air support to Assad’s forces and enabling the regime to regain significant territory. Moscow’s military bases in Tartus and Latakia have served as strategic hubs, cementing Russia’s foothold in the eastern Mediterranean. With Assad’s fall, Russia faces a dilemma: whether to continue supporting remnants of the regime or shift its strategy to protect its long-term interests in Syria. Analysts suggest that Moscow may seek to negotiate with the rebels to maintain its military presence, but the rapid changes on the ground complicate such efforts.
Iran and Hezbollah
Iran’s involvement in Syria has been both ideological and strategic. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia aligned with Tehran, have been pivotal in bolstering Assad’s forces. For Iran, Syria represents a critical link in the so-called "Shia Crescent," a corridor of influence stretching from Tehran to Beirut. However, the fall of Assad threatens this strategic calculus, with Iranian forces and Hezbollah now increasingly targeted by Israeli airstrikes. Tel Aviv, determined to prevent Iran from establishing a permanent military presence near its borders, has intensified its operations, striking weapons depots and troop convoys.
Turkey’s Ambitions
Turkey, which has long supported Syrian rebel groups, has emerged as a key player in the post-Assad landscape. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has expressed ambitions to expand Turkish influence in northern Syria, ostensibly to secure its borders from Kurdish militias. The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by Kurdish fighters, have been instrumental in combating ISIS but are viewed by Ankara as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a designated terrorist organisation.
In the wake of Assad’s collapse, Turkey has ramped up its military activities, seizing the opportunity to weaken Kurdish forces further. Erdoğan’s government has also announced plans to reopen its embassy in Damascus, signaling its intent to play a central role in shaping Syria’s future governance.
The U.S. and the Kurdish Dilemma
The United States has maintained a limited military presence in Syria, focusing on counter-ISIS operations and supporting the SDF. However, the collapse of Assad has complicated Washington’s position. The SDF, already under pressure from Turkish-backed militias, has suspended its operations against ISIS to defend its territories, raising fears of a resurgence of the extremist group.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently visited Iraq to discuss Syria's future with regional leaders, emphasizing the need for an inclusive political solution that protects minority rights and prevents the re-emergence of extremist threats. However, balancing U.S. support for the Kurds with the need to placate Turkey—a NATO ally—remains a significant challenge.
A Region in Flux
Syria’s collapse has sent shockwaves across the region, prompting neighboring countries to recalibrate their strategies. Iraq, already grappling with its internal challenges, fears that the instability in Syria could spill over its borders. Jordan and Lebanon, which have borne the brunt of the refugee crisis, are bracing for a new wave of displaced Syrians.
Meanwhile, Israel’s increased military activity underscores its concerns over a potential vacuum that could allow Iran and Hezbollah to expand their influence. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reiterated Israel’s commitment to protecting its borders, warning that the chaos in Syria could lead to greater regional instability.
A Humanitarian Crisis
The end of Assad’s regime, while celebrated by many Syrians, has deepened the country’s humanitarian crisis. Over half the population remains displaced, with millions living in dire conditions in refugee camps or struggling to survive in rebel-held areas. Humanitarian agencies warn that the lack of a central authority could exacerbate the crisis, as aid distribution becomes even more fragmented.
The Road Ahead
As Syria enters this new phase, the international community faces the daunting task of supporting the country’s recovery while preventing it from descending into further chaos. The question of governance looms large, with HTS’s Islamist ideology raising concerns about the rights of minorities and women under their rule.
The international community is also grappling with the implications of Assad’s departure for broader regional stability. The United Nations has called for urgent talks among key stakeholders to chart a path forward, but deep divisions remain.
While the fall of Assad marks a significant turning point, it does not signal the end of Syria’s challenges. The battle for Syria’s future has only just begun, with foreign powers, regional actors, and domestic factions all vying for control. For the Syrian people, the hope for peace and stability remains elusive, as the shadow of war continues to cast its long and devastating reach.
